Originally published March 4, 2020
https://www.queensjewishlink.com/index.php/opinion/2252-scores
Disclaimer: The results printed below are as of midnight Tuesday night.
Super Tuesday ended with a big night for the Joe Biden campaign, which put him and Sanders very close in the delegate count out of Super Tuesday.
Coming into Super Tuesday, the momentum was with Biden. After winning big in South Carolina, beating Bernie Sanders by almost 30 points and taking home 39 out of 54 delegates, the Democrats consolidated behind the former Vice President. Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg suspended their campaigns and endorsed Joe Biden.
Super Tuesday is the biggest primary day in the election calendar, with 14 states and 1,357 delegates up for grabs. To qualify to get delegates, a candidate must receive a minimum of 15% of the vote. To automatically win the nomination requires 1,991 delegates. The states whose Democratic primaries took place on Super Tuesday were Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia, plus American Samoa (a US territory in the South Pacific).
In 2016, the Democratic Primary was split between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. With Sanders as the frontrunner coming into this year’s Super Tuesday, comparing his performance state by state against other, more moderate Democrats in 2020 can show the direction of the country in the last four years. Each state breakdown will therefore have the 2016 results in addition to the available 2020 results.
The delegate count before Super Tuesday was Bernie Sanders with 60, Joe Biden with 54, and Elizabeth Warren with 8.
Alabama
Biden won Alabama, which has 52 delegates. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the state with 77.8% of the vote to Bernie’s 19.2%. With 58% of the vote counted, the numbers in 2020 were similar, with Biden winning 62.1% and Sanders with 16.1%. Bloomberg’s 11.8% doesn’t reach the threshold; neither does Warren’s 5.3%.
Arkansas
Biden won Arkansas, which has 31 delegates. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the state with 66.1% and Sanders received 30% of the vote. Biden, Sanders, and Bloomberg all qualified for delegates. With 67% of the vote counted, Biden has 39.2%, Sanders has 22.7%, and Bloomberg has 17%. Warren received 10.1% of the vote.
California
California has 415 delegates, and is the biggest prize on Super Tuesday. In 2016, Clinton edged out Sanders 53.1% to 46%. The polls in California closed at 11 p.m. EST, so only 12% of the results came in, but Fox called the state for Sanders, who has 27.3% of the vote. Bloomberg performed well, compared to his other showings, coming in second with 18.8% of the vote, and Biden came in third with 17.2%. Warren’s 11.4% was not enough to earn her delegates.
Colorado
Sanders won Colorado, which has 67 delegates. In 2016, Sanders won Colorado with 59% of the vote, and Clinton received 40.3%. With 81% of votes counted, Colorado has four candidates that were over the 15% threshold. Sanders has 35.8%, Bloomberg has 22.3%, Biden has 22%, and Warren has 17.1%. This split will cause Sanders to receive far fewer delegates than he received from Colorado in 2016.
Maine
With 66% of the vote counted, Maine (and her 24 delegates) is too close to call. In 2016, Sanders won 64.3% to Clinton’s 35.5%. Now, Sanders and Biden are in a dead heat at 33% each, with Warren at 17.2% and Bloomberg at 11.4%. If Warren consolidated behind Bernie, he would have walked away with Maine like he did in 2016.
Massachusetts
Massachusetts has 91 delegates and is Elizabeth Warren’s home state. However, it was an embarrassing night for Warren, who came in third place. Biden won Massachusetts. In 2016, Clinton slightly beat out Sanders 49.7% to 48.3%. With 84% of the vote counted, Biden received 33.2% of the vote, and Sanders received 26.9% of the vote. Warren’s 21.9% of the vote essentially robbed Sanders of a win, if she had dropped out before Super Tuesday.
Minnesota
Biden won Minnesota, which has 75 delegates and is Amy Klobuchar’s home state. Klobuchar dropped out on Monday and endorsed Joe Biden. In 2016, Sanders won 61.6% to Clinton’s 38.4%. The Klobuchar endorsement helped Biden, because he beat Sanders 38.3% to 30.2%, with 71% of the votes counted. Warren’s 15.7% will also get her some delegates
North Carolina
Biden wins North Carolina, which has 110 delegates. In 2016, Clinton won the state 54.5% to Sanders’ 40.9%. This time around, with 82% of the vote counted, Biden received 42.5% of the vote to Sanders’ 23.9%. Bloomberg’s 13.2% and Warren’s 10.4% do not qualify for delegates, but combining Bloomberg with Biden replicates the Clinton numbers, and Warren with Sanders replicates the 2016 Sanders numbers. Interestingly, the counties that Sanders carried are on the border with Tennessee, and two of the Tennessee counties that Sanders carried are on the Border with North Carolina.
Oklahoma
Biden won Oklahoma, which has 37 delegates. In 2016, Sanders won 51.9% of the vote to Clinton’s 41.5%. With 78% of the vote counted, Biden has 38.2% of the vote, and Sanders has 25.1% of the vote. Neither Bloomberg nor Warren reached the minimum threshold with 14.3% and 13.1%. Biden won every single county in Oklahoma with a plurality vote.
Tennessee
Biden won Tennessee, which has 64 delegates. In 2016, Clinton won 66.1% of the vote to Sanders’ 32.5%. Combined, Sanders and Warren replicated Sanders’ 2016 numbers with 24.4% and 9.2%. Biden’s 43% was enough to win the state, while Bloomberg’s 16% is enough to get a few delegates.
Texas
Texas is the second biggest prize of the night (after California) with 228 delegates. With 51% of the vote counted, Texas is too close to call. Sanders has 28.5% and Biden has 27.1%. Former Congressman and Presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke endorsed Joe Biden. O’Rourke dropped out of the race in November 2019. Biden claimed that O’Rourke will have a place in his administration, should he win, as being in charge of Biden’s gun policy. Polls leading up to Super Tuesday have Sanders with a comfortable lead against Biden in Texas, which shows that the O’Rourke endorsement at the 11th hour may have helped keep Biden competitive in the Lone Star State.
Bloomberg so far has 17.8%, which would get him a few delegates. Warren’s 12.2% isn’t enough.
Utah
Sanders won Utah, which has 29 delegates. In 2016, Sanders won 79.3% of the vote, one of his biggest wins of that year (outside his home state of Vermont). Clinton had 20.2% of the vote. 2020 is a much different story. With 65% of the vote counted, Sanders has 31.4% of the vote, which is a 48-point drop in four years. Bloomberg had a second place finish with 18.9%, and Warren just reached the threshold with 15%. Her continued presence in this race could have hurt Sanders’ delegate count in every state where she won a few delegates. Biden came in fourth place with 14.7% of the vote.
Vermont
Vermont has 16 delegates, and is Bernie Sanders’ home state. In 2016, Sanders won big at home with 85.7%, and Clinton won 13.6%. At 80% of the vote counted, Sanders won the state, but only with 51.7% of the vote. Biden outperformed Clinton with 21.5%. Warren and Bloomberg got 12.6% and 9% of the vote, respectively.
Biden’s performance in Sanders’ home state shows that he may be more likeable than Clinton and that Sanders’ constituents may be getting tired of the socialist ideology. Even including Warren’s 12.6%, Sanders didn’t come close to his 2016 performance.
Virginia
Joe Biden won Virginia, which has 99 delegates. In 2016, Clinton won 64.3% of the vote, and Sanders won 35.2%. Biden wins the state with 53.3% of the vote. Sanders came in second place with 23.1% of the vote. No other candidate qualified for delegates this year. Warren’s 10.8% seems to have come from Sanders’ 2016 support, while Bloomberg’s 9.7% was split with Biden from Clinton’s support.
American Samoa
Mike Bloomberg won American Samoa, which has six delegates, with 49.9% of the vote. In 2016, Clinton won with 68.4% against Sanders’ 25.7%. Tulsi Gabbard, Congresswoman from Hawaii, who has not qualified in the last few Democratic debates, received 29.3% of the vote. Bloomberg takes five of the delegates, and Gabbard takes one.
Conclusion
According to The New York Times, Biden will leave Super Tuesday in the lead with 640 delegates to Sanders’ 578. Bloomberg will have 136 and Warren will have 105. The betting markets at this point at putting 60% odds of no candidate having a majority come convention time. This means there will be a fight in Milwaukee, because neither Biden nor Sanders will bow out to join with the other. These two candidates are both too ideologically opposed for a unity ticket (like Reagan-Bush in 1980), too old, and not diverse enough to be on the Democratic tickets. This means that if Biden gets the nomination at the convention, there’s a strong chance that Bernie’s voters stay home in November.
The next big primary day is next Tuesday, March 10, with six more states going to the polls. If Bloomberg drops out and throws his money behind Biden, there’s a strong chance that Biden could earn the nomination outright. Either way, this primary season has a long way to go.
Moshe Hill is a political analyst who has written for The Daily Wire, the Queens Jewish Link, The Jewish Link of New Jersey and www.JNS.org. He is regularly featured on ‘The Josh M Show’ podcast. Subscribe to aHillwithaview.com for more content from Moshe Hill. Like him on Facebook at facebook.com/ahillwithaview and follow him on Twitter @TheMoHill.
